Your Pro Citizen Newsletter 53 - How many do you need? ; Weekly Discount Code

Battlefield Calculus

Anytime us combat arms guys had to do math it was always referred to as “battlefield calculus”. Everything from figuring out how many 5.56 rounds a troop needed to how many thousands of gallons of JP8 the battalion required for the next 36 hours. It also applied to figuring out time/distance for maneuver forces to synchronize operations, you didn’t want an air assault going in before (or even worse…during) the SEAD indirect fire missions. For the supply components like ammo (Class V), fuel (Class III) and food (Class I) the logisticians were there to figure it all out, but the maneuver leaders still had to understand and have a sense of what right looked like to keep things straight. So how does this apply to you trying to get ahead of a snow and ice storm? For the beltline of America, a storm like we had the last couple days.

Too Late

We discussed this “too late” concept a while back in another newsletter. Many failures are a result of taking action too late; missing an opportunity to correct a deficiency or be proactive to head off a shortfall. This always comes into play when we discuss readiness and prepping. We can get ourselves in a bind if we wait too long to acquire supplies or equipment; either exposing ourselves to competition for diminishing resources or missing the window of opportunity to travel out and get stocked up. The end result is the same either way, we fail to get what we need in time.

What should you focus on?

We need to know our requirements; what are the threats to survival or assets (home, finances, vehicles, livestock) and how do we plan to counter them? This isn’t a full-on mission analysis, it is a “A” way to frame your thinking to focus on the true priorities. One quick note before you examine the example below - the constraint and limitation definitions are (for some reason) ill defined in current Army and Joint doctrine. Going back to legacy staff methods and analysis is the better choice for us, so for our purposes lets define them as:

Constraints - a restriction placed upon you (your unit) by the higher headquarters or by external entities. Something you are either told you cannot do or are told you must do. Eg you cannot advance past PHASE LINE BUNNY during the recon. For day to day application a constraint might be you are not allowed to work from home if there is a weather event.

Limitations - remember this is not aligned with current doctrine, but for our purposes this “old” definition works… a limitation is something you cannot physically, financially, or morally execute. An example of a limitation (under this definition) could be you only have one vehicle available and can only transport four people.

We need to have a deliberate planning tool, the legacy version of the running staff estimate is a good place to start:

Based on the running estimate above (an extremely simplified example) it becomes apparent what your priorities are and what you need to do. The priority that emerges from this particular running estimate is heating the house. You know you have enough food to get through the anticipated disruption and there is little risk to actual survival. The challenge becomes one of comfort and convenience, especially with kids.

With this laid out you must now determine what you need to meet the requirements. Priority is determining how much generator fuel you need in cans before the storm hits. You can base this on the anticipated duration of the storm (facts) and the duration that power may be out before it gets restored (under assumptions based on historical local data). With that information you can do the math: your hourly loaded generator consumption x 72 hours = your fuel requirement. Always add in a comfortable reserve as well, 20 to 30 percent is a good benchmark to use. Your contingency heat option of propane heaters will require a bit of math as well, the same process applies.

Don’t make it harder than it needs to be

This is just “A” way of looking at the problem set, if you have a more informal way to think through the problem that is fine. The benefit of having decision making tools like the running estimate it allows you to see the entirety of the situation. You may think you need something when in reality you do not; unneeded things that would consume resources (time and money) can be de-prioritized until the real requirements are addressed. Please keep in mind running estimates are a staff tool that enable decision making, they are not a replacement for full IPB and MDMP.